The World's Biggest Bankruptcy?

Are You Ready For The World's Biggest Bankruptcy?

By Tom Dyson | 4 March 2009

The media have given London a new nickname: Reykjavik-on-Thames.

Britain's economy revolved around banking. British banks hold about $4.4 trillion in foreign debt. The total size of the UK economy is $2.1 trillion. This year, the British government nationalized major parts of the UK's banking system. In total, the UK Treasury is on the hook for over $2 trillion in potential liabilities, according to an estimate by the Office of National Statistics.

But Britain is NOT going to be the world's biggest national bankruptcy. The government debt of the United Kingdom is only around $950 billion… or about $15,000 per capita.

This week, the United States Treasury sunk another $30 billion into AIG… its fourth bailout. It also put another $25 billion into Citigroup. The Treasury is now on the hook for as much as $6 trillion in liabilities. Last week, the White House produced its new budget. President Obama wants to run a deficit of $1.75 trillion in 2009.

The Treasury will pay for these bailouts by borrowing money. The Treasury borrows money by issuing Treasury bonds. Tomorrow [[actually, last week: normxxx]], for example, it will auction three-year, 10-year, and 30-year bonds. This auction should raise around $60 billion.

The "debt clock" measures the amount of money the government owes its creditors. Today, the U.S. debt clock reads $11 trillion. To pay off this debt tomorrow, the government would have to collect $36,000 from every American. But even America is NOT about to be the world's biggest bankruptcy.

Of the major industrial economies in the world, Japan's government is the most indebted.

Since its recession began 20 years ago, Japan has plowed trillions into its banking system via numerous bailout programs. Japan's mantra is growth without cost. As a result, the Japanese government has built up the world's most crippling debt load. The government of Japan owes $7.8 trillion. That's $157,000 per capita.

We've been using government debt per capita to compare the government debts of Britain, the United States, and Japan. But government debt to GDP is the ratio economists use to compare the indebtedness of countries. The UK has a government debt-to-GDP ratio of 48%. The U.S. has a government debt-to-GDP ratio of 75%. Japan has a government debt-to-GDP ratio of 187%.

If there's going to be a major sovereign bankruptcy, it's going to happen in Japan. Its economy is a shambles. For years, Japan has relied on exports… but now, even that's drying up. In January, Japan's exports plunged 47%, producing a trade deficit.

People talk about Japan as a "nation of savers." But that's not true anymore. Japan's personal savings rate has collapsed from 16% in the early 1990s to 2.2% last year. Japan has an aging population and no immigration. I can't see where it's going to find the money to pay off its huge pile of debt.

The way to play the collapse in Japan is by shorting the yen. Right now, the Japanese yen is the world's most popular currency. Traders perceive it as a safe haven. In 2008, the yen was the world's best performing currency…. Rising 33% against the Canadian dollar, 40% against the British pound, and 19% against the dollar.

Back in January, I told you a fall in the yen was all but inevitable. The yen is down 12% since that article. But according to a Merrill lynch report I saw yesterday, large speculators still have a $3.7 billion long position in yen futures. The analyst described it as "crowded."

The Japanese yen has been in a 40-year bull market. I think a new long-term bear market has just started… and it will end in the bankruptcy of Japan's government. FXY is the ETF for the Japanese yen. When then yen falls, this fund falls, too. The easiest way to bet on a fall in yen is to short this fund or buy put options on it.

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Japan Is About To Devalue Its Currency: Here's How To Profit

By Tom Dyson| January, 2009

Before you read today's investment idea, look at the chart below. It's Toyota's worst nightmare. In the last five months, the yen has moved from 110 to 90 against the dollar, making it 2008's strongest currency. The yen is the highest it's been in 14 years… and it's only a few points away from its highest level ever.

Toyota sells cars all over the world. When the yen rises against other currencies, Toyota's cars are more expensive to foreigners. They don't buy so many. They choose American, European, or Korean cars instead. Toyota loses money.

According to the Wall Street Journal, every point the yen rises against the dollar costs Toyota $433 million in annual operating profit. In other words, over the last five months, Toyota saw $8.6 billion in annual profits disappear… That's about a quarter of its annual operating profit.

This chart shows the Yen Trust. When this fund rises, it means the yen is getting stronger.

Japan's entire economy is a large version of Toyota. Japan is an export economy. Its strategy for prosperity is producing goods and selling them to foreigners. Every point the yen rises costs Japan billions of dollars in profits for its companies, billions of dollars in tax revenues for the government, and thousands of jobs in the economy.

In the past, when the yen rose too high, Japanese authorities intervened in the markets to make the yen fall. One tool they use is cutting interest rates. Low interest rates discourage people from storing their money in yen and encourage them to save their money in other currencies with higher interest rates.

Right now, the Japanese yen has the world's second-lowest official interest rate, after the U.S. The official central bank rate in Japan is 0.3%. The second tool Japanese officials use to devalue their currency is direct intervention in the foreign exchange markets. The Bank of Japan prints money and then exchanges the yen for dollars in the foreign exchange market, pushing down its price.

The last time the Japanese got worried about the yen being too high was in 2003 and 2004. The yen was around 105 at the time. They spent $2.5 billion pushing their currency down about 20% against the dollar.

The Japanese yen is now around 15% higher than it was in 2003-04. And Japan's economy is much sicker than it was back then. The stock market is close to 20-year lows and GDP is shrinking. There's no longer room to keep cutting interest rates. I'm certain the Japanese authorities are going to start intervention again soon. It may be happening already. Last week, the head of Japan's central bank told the press he was looking at ways to devalue the yen.

The Best Speculation In The World Right Now

Japan's currency pays no interest. Japan's economy is in tatters. But debt is the big reason I expect the yen to fall. Japan's government is the most indebted in the world… with a government debt-to-GDP ratio expected to hit 150% next year. (It averages between 70% and 75% for the six largest economies in the world.)

To devalue its currency, Japan's going to have to print money using the same "quantitative easing" techniques Bernanke is using right now. These techniques are highly inflationary… and guarantee[!?!] the yen will fall against other currencies. You won't hear any other writer in the world predicting inflation and currency devaluation in Japan right now. That's why it's such a good bet. Plus, as you can see from the chart above, we've got the trend in our favor.

FXY is the symbol of the Japanese Yen Trust. When the yen falls against the dollar, this fund falls. The easiest way to bet on a fall in yen is to short this fund or buy put options on it.

Good investing,

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Normxxx    
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